Let’s be more pragmatic

Many of my friends and family are alarmed by “growing” numbers of diagnosed cases of Covid-19 in their town. I feel like they are assuming as number of cases “grow”, the Covid-19 is actively “spreading”. I told them not to see it like that and this is why:

1. number of cases are going up because we are doing more test. yes, i am sure it IS spreading but vast majority of cases of Covid-19 is mild so you aren’t gonna see obvious effect. but what you see on TV is due to the results of INCREASED testing.

2. test for Covid-19 currently available is NOT very accurate. It’s only about 70% accurate (sensitive). it means 3 out of 10 patients test NEGATIVE actually has virus. those 3 people who walked out thinking they do not have the virus either will be back sick or keep on going spreading to their family and friends. so this “test” isn’t end all be all for handling this situation.

3. there are new studies coming out using Chest CT to make diagnosis more accurate. i’ll attach the reference. Easier to obtain, maybe more accurate and definitely faster than current testing.

4. chances are we have been unknowingly living with Covid-19 for months if not longer. Do you know someone who rarely EVER get sick but got “flu” for 3-4 days and got really sick in past 2-3 months? i know whole bunch and now that ask they were like “oh yeah, this winter i got sick for first time in years but flu test was negative”.

Obviously im not a virologist nor epidemiologist. but if you really look deep into it, there are a lot of interesting facts out there. what i see on TV/internet is sensationalism. They love showing human drama of Italy but they aren’t showing what is going on in Germany. Maybe because there is nothing exciting about state that has firm handle on situation vs dead bodies. MSM need to be censored in this kind of difficult time iMO.

Anyways, I’m happy about this rain. Pollens are brutal this spring. πŸ€’